Team USA back in control of World Baseball Classic destiny after Great Britain upsets Colombia

Team USA will play its third game of the 2023 World Baseball Classic on Monday night against Canada. Chicago White Sox right-hander Lance Lynn will get the starting nod for an American squad that was nearly subjected to the mercy rule in Sunday night’s loss versus Mexico. Team USA’s record now stands at 1-1 with two games left to play, making Monday’s game close to a must-win if the reigning WBC champions hope to advance to the next phase.

Below, CBS Sports has previewed what waits ahead for Team USA and recapped how Sunday night’s loss complicates their pursuit of repeating as champions. Before we get into the specifics of the Americans’ situation, we figured it would be helpful to provide a refresher on how the WBC’s tournament structure works.

In the first phase, the pool play, 20 teams are sorted into four bins. Each of those five teams within each pool play one another, for a total of four games. From there, the tournament enters its second phase, with the two teams with the best records in each of the four pools advancing to what amounts to an eight-team, single-elimination tournament. In other words, the eventual champion is the team who wins three consecutive elimination games.

Got it? Good. Now, let’s get specific about Team USA and what awaits them.

1. The remaining schedule

As mentioned above, this initial WBC phase entails playing one game apiece versus the other four teams in the pool. Team USA has already played Great Britain and Mexico, leaving them with dates against Canada and Colombia. 

• Canada, Monday, 10 p.m. ET
• Colombia, Wednesday, 10 p.m. ET

The Americans will square off with the Canadians on Monday night before taking Tuesday off. They’ll then play Colombia on Wednesday night. As it stands, that game could have win-or-go-back-to-spring-training stakes.

2. The current pool picture

Team USA received major help from Great Britain on Monday. After looking overmatched in their first two games, the Brits upset Colombia, paving the way for the Americans to control their own destiny. Here’s how Pool C stacks up following Great Britain’s upset of Colombia:

Canada has most of its tournament ahead of them yet, so Pool C will continue to be shaped over the coming days. Despite Monday’s surprise win over Colombia, we can write with a good deal of confidence that Great Britain will not advance. They’ll meet Mexico on Tuesday night for their fourth and final game of the first round.

Thanks to Great Britain’s win over Colombia, USA controls its own destiny. Wins over Canada on Monday and Colombia on Wednesday will send USA to the second round. In that case USA would have one loss, Great Britain and Colombia would each have at least two losses, and either Canada or Mexico would have two losses — Mexico has one loss already and Canada would lose to USA, plus Canada and Mexico still play each other, ensuring one of those teams would get a second loss.

There’s a scenario in which Wednesday’s first round finale between USA and Colombia is a win-or-go-home game. That would require USA beating Canada on Monday, Colombia beating Canada on Tuesday, and Mexico beating Great Britain on Tuesday. This is what Pool C would look like entering Wednesday’s contests in that case:

The winner of Wednesday’s USA-Colombia game would finish pool play with just one loss and punch their ticket to the second round regardless of what happens between Canada and Mexico on Wednesday. This is one of the “easy” scenarios. For USA, it’s simple: win the next two games and they’re going to the second round.

Now, if USA were to lose Monday’s game to Canada, then their backs would be up against the wall. If USA loses to Canada on Monday while Colombia beats Canada on Tuesday and Mexico beats Great Britain on Tuesday, these would be the Pool C standings entering Wednesday: 

The winner of Wednesday’s Canada-Mexico game would advance to the second round, and USA would need to beat Colombia on Wednesday to set up a three-team tie at 2-2 between USA, Colombia, and the loser of Canada-Mexico. Only two teams can advance, so how, pray tell, would that work? We’re glad you asked.

3. The possible tiebreaker

The WBC’s tiebreaker rules are simple when it’s a two-team deadlock: the team who won the head-to-head meeting holds the advantage. The WBC’s tiebreaker rules for ties of three or more teams are far more complex. Our Mike Axisa laid out the following on Sunday to explain the five-team tie in Pool A:

Here are the tiebreaker rules for a three or more team tie:

1. Lowest quotient of fewest runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in games between the teams that are tied.

2. Lowest quotient of fewest earned runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in games between the teams that are tied.

3. Highest batting average in games in that round between the teams tied.

4. A drawing of lots.

Note that the first tiebreaker is runs allowed — not runs scored, not run differential, but runs allowed — and only in games between the tied teams. USA surrendering 11 runs to Mexico on Sunday was potentially devastating, but if Mexico beats Canada on Wednesday, that game would be irrelevant for tiebreaker purposes. The three-team tie would involve USA, Canada, and Colombia, not Mexico.

Team USA, Canada, and Colombia have not yet played each other, so those tiebreaker quotients do not yet exist. Bottom line, USA can win its next two games and advance to the second round, and avoid a massive tiebreaker scenario all together. That’s their best course of action. Beat Canada, beat Colombia, advance to the quarterfinals.